Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 177.914729 209.239908 245.996274 292.711586 351.078308 422.362931 5.172054e+02
2025-11-02 138.014098 175.555495 224.297488 293.589754 391.876928 530.018957 7.459365e+02
2025-11-09 112.753940 151.266208 204.895205 287.527931 416.429492 618.737859 9.803231e+02
2025-11-16 95.754811 133.752479 189.592329 281.291497 435.891954 702.360165 1.239088e+03
2025-11-23 83.185536 120.015435 176.553777 274.436344 450.747575 780.738641 1.522616e+03
2025-11-30 78.716583 117.533932 179.979495 294.532480 516.808764 974.644134 2.151256e+03
2025-12-07 72.091071 110.525264 174.648324 297.810705 551.708796 1118.518909 2.757505e+03
2025-12-14 67.180278 105.575563 171.873909 304.958805 596.108481 1301.189247 3.610977e+03
2025-12-21 61.916878 99.308740 165.745360 304.168295 622.898689 1452.472920 4.503267e+03
2025-12-28 60.184838 98.955192 170.296479 325.997995 708.642938 1803.357765 6.526399e+03
2026-01-04 57.940853 97.363664 172.190738 342.468796 786.819438 2177.955197 9.232371e+03
2026-01-11 55.502658 95.100364 172.388510 355.117940 859.453780 2581.781340 1.288857e+04
2026-01-18 52.588306 91.749775 170.208087 362.545671 922.970342 3010.299957 1.790521e+04
2026-01-25 49.490350 87.717829 166.081998 364.483469 971.712398 3424.505379 2.428613e+04
2026-02-01 45.978437 82.499660 158.721504 356.682596 986.985685 3709.349414 3.071584e+04
2026-02-08 42.825248 77.708938 151.722723 348.546189 998.941936 3995.168012 3.876055e+04
2026-02-15 39.950613 73.226973 144.887436 339.593525 1005.394357 4264.763288 4.847816e+04
2026-02-22 39.597065 73.980101 150.153666 365.895189 1155.007284 5526.232180 8.943857e+04
2026-03-01 37.912224 71.720886 148.028733 370.197865 1220.805519 6361.582381 1.360054e+05
2026-03-08 36.636750 70.232195 147.580836 379.590976 1313.596812 7545.667945 2.293575e+05
2026-03-15 34.919728 67.614164 144.032890 378.551425 1360.318486 8454.257991 3.525637e+05
2026-03-22 34.739653 68.428371 149.243896 407.327561 1565.513526 11263.500897 9.321524e+05
2026-03-29 34.188943 68.339102 152.116763 429.132068 1752.077049 14480.240504 2.697938e+06